2022 March Madness

MARCH MADNESS 2022

Title Contenders

An historical look at the profile of an NCAA tournament champion. Below are the pre tournament Kenpom rankings across adjusted offense, defense and total efficiency margin since 2002. No team has won the NCAA tournament in the last 20 years without entering the tournament in the top 25 of Kenpom’s overall ranking. In all but three cases (2003 Syracuse, 2011 Uconn and 2014 Uconn), every champion has been a top 6 overall team entering the tournament. Only one time (2014 Uconn) has a team with an adjusted offensive efficiency of worse than 21st won the title. The 2015 Duke team is the only one to win the title with a defense that ranked worse than 27th.

If we exclude these outliers, the teams we want to focus on to win the title should be ranked in the top 25 overall, top 25 on offense and top 30 on defense. It should be noted that in a few of these outlier cases, there are ways to explain them. For example, the 2015 Duke team that won the title with the worst adjusted defensive ranking in the last 20 years, also had multiple freshman high first round draft choices on that team (Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, Tyus Jones) and NBA talent can trump a lot of those defensive woes. Nobody really boasts that level of talent in this year’s tournament so I wouldn’t expect an outlier like that.

Based on the above criteria, which teams fit the filter as the most likely National Champion?

There are 10 teams (above) that fit the historical criteria to win the 2022 National Championship. By no means will it be impossible for a team not on this list to win but if you want to increase your probability the most to win a bracket pool or hit a title future, I would only pick among this group.

Notable teams missing from the above contenders list include:

Duke (fatal flaw: 44th on defense)
Iowa (fatal flaw: 77th on defense)
Alabama (fatal flaw: 94th on defense)
Texas Tech (fatal flaw: 65th on offense)
Arkansas (fatal flaw: 40th on offense)

Tennessee is also excluded but just barely. They rank 3rd on defense, 7th overall but 36th on offense. That figure is outside what historically has profiled as a title team. I wouldn’t fault anyone from picking them to win it but for the purpose of this exercise, I have eliminated them as a likely winner.

The Empty Suits

Who are the top seeds that could be primed for a big upset early? There is a very specific profile for teams that I like to call The Empty Suits. It’s been true and tested year after year in the tournament that teams that don’t play good defense, find it very difficult to string together multiple tournament wins in a row. However, because we are looking for higher seeded teams (7 seed or better) that may fit the upset bill, they will had to have been really good on offense in order to receive a high seed.

So just going back to 2011, there have been 18 teams that have been a top 7 seed with a top 25 raw offensive efficiency (points per possession) but with a raw defensive efficiency ranking of 135 or worse. Among these 18 teams, 0 made the Final 4, only 3 made the Elite 8 and seven teams (!) were upset by a double digit seed in round one. None of the seven teams that meet the Empty Suits category since 2017 have made it past round two. I would not even think about placing any of these teams in your Final 4 and feel free to look strongly at picking against these teams early in your bracket. Teams that meet this criteria this season include Iowa, Purdue and Ohio State.

Double Digit Cinderella

Every year the biggest question is who can be this year’s Cinderella? They come in all shapes and sizes but I will do my best to try and profile what historically has proven to be the characteristics that can match some teams this season. For point of reference, there have been 12 teams seeded 11 or higher to make the Sweet 16 since 2014 and at least one has made it in every year. And six of the last eight teams seeded 11 or higher to make the Sweet 16 have come from one of the big conference schools. Now let’s remember that this is a small sample of teams and there is lots of variance needed to win in an upset. Some times it’s as simple as a team getting hot from 3 or the opponent going ice cold, etc. But a few things do stand out. For one, the median adjusted tempo that these teams played with ranked 265th in the country. Six of the 12 teams had a tempo that ranked over 300th in the country out of just over 350 teams. The two teams that played the fastest tempo (2021 Oral Roberts and 2015 UCLA) also were excellent 3 point shooting teams. OR ranked 17th and UCLA 71st in 3pt percentage so they could get away with a lot of possessions since they made a lot of 3s. But in general, a big chunk of these 11+ seeded teams that reached the Sweet 16 in recent memory, played at an extremely slow pace. And that makes sense since in order to increase your odds of beating a better, more talented team, you want to minimize the variance buy decreasing the number of possessions as much as possible. Just think about it, do you have a better chance at beating Steph Curry in a 3 point contest where first to miss loses or first to 20? The less opportunity for the favorite the better odds at something random occurring that helps the underdog.

The other thing that really helps is what your opponent is weak at doing. If the higher seeded team lets you have extra chances to score (opponent offensive rebounding) or doesn’t take away chances for you to score (bad turnover rate on defense) then that will help the underdog. So finding a good combo of a double digit seed who keeps things slow, can make some threes but also plays an opponent who doesn’t minimize your chances to score, is ideal for an upset or two. Here are some candidates:

Notre Dame (11): fits the criteria of an 11+ seed from a big conference that plays very slow (271 in tempo) and top 50 in both 3 point rate and 3 point %. Now obviously this is dependent on the Irish winning the play in game but we have seen many times in the past that these teams can go far in the tournament. If they matchup against Alabama they will face a team that is used to playing very fast (16th in pace), 304th in opponent offensive rebound percentage and 238th in forcing turnovers. If the Irish beat Alabama then they will have a stiff test against Texas Tech who does allow a lot of 3 point attempts (344th in 3 point rate allowed).

Vermont (13): Vermont has been great all season and sit 59th in the kenpom rankings. They are the 4th in the country and 2nd in this tournament in experience as well. They play at a really slow pace (300th) and can really shoot it (top 50 in both 3 point rate and 3 point %). They are going up against a Razorback team in round one that is 28th in pace and 267th in allowing 3pt attempts.

Virginia Tech (11): The Hokies are hot, winning the ACC tournament and are completely underseeded as kenpom’s 23rd ranked team in the country. They fit the perfect profile as a double digit seed to make a deep tournament run- come from a big conference, 344th in pace, 95th in 3 point rate and 3rd best in 3 point %. The problem is that their round one opponent, Texas, plays at a similarly slow pace, top 10 in forcing turnovers and top 60 in 3 point attempts allowed. This game is a virtual coin flip but if they can win it sets up a pretty good matchup against one of my “Empty Suit” teams in Purdue, 196th in raw defensive efficiency. They dont cause turnovers (343rd nationally), allow opponents to rebound their own misses (278 in opp OR%) and allow teams to shoot a lot of 3s (220th in 3 point rate allowed).

Colgate (14): Colgate is probably at the bottom of this list because they are just middle of the pack in terms of pace but they are deadly from 3, sitting 2nd nationally in 3 point %. Wisconsin is obviously slow themselves and do a good job on the boards but they don’t turn over teams (259th in TO %) so if Colgate does get hot from 3 they have a strong chance. Why I did go ahead and list them was because if they can pull off this round one upset, they will get to face either LSU or Iowa St in round two. Both teams are not very strong from a profile standpoint and LSU doesn’t even have a head coach right now. The Tigers play in the fast paced SEC and are 257th in opponent offensive rebound rate and 347th in allowing 3 point attempts.

South Dakota St (13): The Jackrabbits aren’t the ideal upset team since they play at a fast pace but they are #1 in the country in 3 point % and the team they are facing, Providence, is 183rd in opponent offensive rebounds, 300th in forcing turnovers and an overall vastly overseeded team. In fact, the Friars rank #1 in kenpom’s luck metric which calculates how your record is versus your actual game to game performance. Meaning, did you win way more close games than you should have. Providence is 11-2 in games decided by 5 points or less this season and only 49th in kenpom’s team rankings. If the Jackrabbits can get by the Friars, they likely face another one of my Empty Suits teams in Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been hot but they are a bad defensive team and South Dakota St. can compete.

Jacksonville St (15): This is absolutely the longest of the longshots, but if one were to hit this season, Jax St has the profile to do it. They play slow (276th in adjusted tempo) and especially like to take their time on offense (323rd in average position length). They also shoot a ton of 3s (62nd in 3pt rate) and make a lot (11th in 3pt %). They’ve also been really unlucky when it comes to opponent FT %, allowing the 3rd highest FT% in all of NCAA basketball as opponents have shot 77.4% this season against them. Auburn is 121st at 73.3% in making FTs. Auburn does have a strong tendency to allow 2nd shots (230th in off rebounds allowed). Jax St has proven to be able to hang with some big boys, losing by only 6 at Alabama. And if they happen to pull off this major upset, their round two opponent, either USC or Miami FL, are both beatable.

SWEET 16

How have the remaining teams fared against the better teams in the country on the season? Below is a table that depicts how each team has performed from an offensive, defensive and total efficiency margin perspective (adjusted for schedule) against only the kenpom top 100 teams. So stuffing their numbers against really bad competition is excluded. UCLA stands out as the team that could be undervalued as they sit top 6 in both offense and defense and third overall.

ATS PICKS: (16-22-1, -10 units)

Title Game:

Kansas first half -2.5 (to win 1 unit, -105): ❌

Kansas ML (to win 1 unit -190): ✅Well before the tournament started I laid out the historical data that showed which teams are the likeliest to win the title and Kansas is the only team that remains. As a reminder, no team has won the NCAA tournament in the last 20 years without entering the tournament in the top 25 of Kenpom’s overall ranking. In all but three cases (2003 Syracuse, 2011 Uconn and 2014 Uconn), every champion has been a top 6 overall team entering the tournament. North Carolina entered the tournament ranked 29th and Kansas 6th. The 2015 Duke team is the only one to win the title with a defense that ranked worse than 27th. UNC entered the tournament ranked 64th! If UNC were to win, they would be the unlikeliest champion in the kenpom database (20 years).

Outside of the historical metrics, Kansas is the more complete team. UNC has been great in this tournament, but they easily could have lost three different times. Kansas really hasn’t been tested to that degree, albeit against easier competition. Kansas should have its way inside with McCormick and Lightfoot with a banged up Armando Bacot. I know he will play but that ankle is surely sore and will be tested. UNC is 356th in causing turnovers and are 328th in effective FG% against transition. Kansas lives in transition and is top 50 in the country in frequency of fast breaks. I think between the transition game and the Bacot injury, Kansas should not have any trouble scoring tonight. Can they slow down this UNC offense? That’s a good question. We have seen Kansas shut down two teams in a row with excellent guard play, similar to UNC, in Miami and Villanova. I think this should be a fun, up tempo game, but Kansas has just enough to get more stops than UNC. My model has this Kansas 79-73 and I think that is about right.

Player Props: 0-6 (-6.5 units)

Christian Braun over 12.5 points (to win 1.5 units -115, Fanduel): He has cleared 12.5 points in 64% of his games this season (25/39) with a median points figure of 13. Braun’s game to game figures are within an extremely tight band so this likely should be in play until late in the game. Leaky Black is UNCs best defender and he will be on Ogbaji all game leaving Braun with room. This is also expected to be a fast paced game, with many possessions, and UNC is 356th nationally in turnover rate on defense, leading to a lot of full possessions and more shots than average for Braun.

Bracket Strategy (assuming standard scoring with points per round increasing thru the Championship)

It is important to first distinguish what type of bracket pool you are competing in before deciding what kind of approach to take in filling one out.

Small Pools (<50-75 people): Here you are less incentivized to make a bunch of risky upset picks so I would be cautious. That doesn’t mean you should pick no upsets but I would stay away from doing anything major that could bust your bracket early. Let others take risky picks because they are much more likely to be wrong. Where you want to pick upsets are involving teams that you don’t think you would pick to advance past the first 2-3 rounds anyway even if it goes chalk. For example, it’s ok to take a 10 seed over a 7 seed if you are likely to pick the 7 seed to lose in round 2 to a 2 seed anyways. The easiest way to start is just advancing all #1 and #2 seeds through to the Sweet 16 automatically. In addition, don’t advance any team that is higher than a #4 seed to make the Final 4. You don’t necessarily need complete chalk with only #1 seeds in the Final 4 but you should have a majority of your Final 4 with top 2 seeded teams. Use the guide above that shows the 10 teams that can win the Title and pick 4 of those to make it to the Final 4. One small way to differentiate yourself is by avoiding Duke in the Final 4.
Larger Pools (75+ people): If your pool is on the lower end of this range you could have an intermediate strategy of picking some more upsets without going overboard and maybe going against the grain slightly at the end with a #2 seed to win it all instead of a #1. I would not take Gonzaga this year to win it all if you are in a very large pool. You can get away with a team like Kentucky or Arizona instead. Otherwise, going with a dark-horse team in my 10 that can win it like Houston or Auburn would be an excellent call for extremely large pools (like >200). You can distinguish yourself while still taking a team that legitimately can win it all. As of today, only 1.3% on ESPN is picking Houston to win it all, although based on their current odds to win it all (20-1), they are closer to a 4.75% chance to win. Otherwise, sending one or more teams to the sweet 16 in the 11-14 range is a good strategy. At least one No. 11 seed has reached the Sweet 16 in seven straight tournaments. And six of the last eight teams seeded 11 or higher to make the Sweet 16 have come from one of the big conference schools. Va Tech, Michigan, Indiana, UAB and Iowa St are all 11 seeds or higher and rank in kenpom’s top 50 total ranking. Obviously four of them are from big conferences and could be a target for your Sweet 16 bracket.

When comparing current ESPN’s bracketology and whom the public is picking to win it all versus the betting markets, this can also help drive some increased expected value. You want to focus on the teams with the better betting probability over what the public is picking. *Note: I only included the 10 teams that fit my Title filter:

Based on the above table, Kentucky, Houston, Auburn and UCLA offer the most value over what the public is currently selecting to win it all. These are the teams I would focus on the most when it comes to finding Final 4 and Championship teams in larger pools.

Note: If you are in a pool where you get rewarded for the seeds you pick and win, then I would advise automatically taking double digit teams like Loyola, Va Tech, Notre Dame into the sweet 16. Among the teams not in the top 2 seed line, UCLA and Houston are the two that would be solid Final 4 candidates to maximize points as well. Don’t go overboard with the upsets but those are a few ideas.